Is it crazy to be doing this on February 12th? Maybe. Am I 90% confident one of these teams will win? Yes. There isn’t exactly some historical method I’m using, it’s just a combination of the eye test, gut feeling, and some predictive analytics. With that being said, here are the teams.

TIER 1: THE CLEAR FAVORITES

#1- Auburn Tigers

The Tigers are the best team in college basketball. No doubt. And to be honest, I could say the one team that can win march madness and just have Auburn. One of their two losses is at Duke, the toughest place to play in the country, their other is against Florida, another top team on this list, and they have beat multiple ranked teams by 20+ points.

The Tigers are led by Johni Broome, in my opinion the best player in the country, who averages 18.1 points, 10.7 rebounds, 3.3 assists, and 2.7 blocks per game. He can do it all, and is hugely impactful in everything Auburn does. The other player who will be key for them to win in March is star freshman guard Tahaad Pettiford. Pettiford averages 11.5 points per game, with some of his best games happening in the biggest moments. He had 24 points on 5/7 from three in a 2 point win over Georgia, and 21 points on 5/8 from three in a 5 point win over Houston. His importance for this team cannot be understated. Along with those two, Auburn has a strong cast of players who fill all the gaps that are needed, With some great shooters, strong interior players, and lanky wings. They are absolutely the team to beat.

#2- Houston Cougars

Houston is DUEEEEE. Man the Cougars have been really good for a while, it feels like they have to break through at some point. This season, they have 4 losses, with the only one in regulation being to Auburn. They lost to Alabama in overtime, San Diego State in overtime, and Texas Tech in overtime, all teams that should make the tournament, although SDSU has been struggling a bit. Those are obviously not bad losses at all. Their efficiency measures look spectacular as well, exactly where Kelvin Sampson wants them to be. They are enforcing their pace on every team they play, and when you watch them, it feels like they’re in control almost all of every game.

The Cougars aren’t led by a singular star, but have a bunch of guys who are bought in on their identity and play hard. The two leaders are senior forward J’wan Roberts, who scores 11.7 points a game along with 6.5 rebounds and 1.7 assists, senior guard LJ Cryer, who scores 14.3 points on 6.9 three point attempts per game, shooting 41%. It’s very hard to say the Cougars are going to lose, and with the right path, they could easily win it all this year.

TIER 2: DEFINITE CONTENDERS

#3- Duke Blue Devils

It is impossible for me not to include the Blue Devils, although they don’t quite intrigue me enough to include them in the top tier. As EVERYONE knows, they are led by freshman phenom Cooper Flagg, who averages 19.5 points, 7.7 rebounds, 4.0 assists, 1.5 steals, and 1.3 blocks. He does it all. If he can continue to make threes more consistently, he could become truly unstoppable. Along with Flagg, they have a supporting cast with players all taller than 6’5, making their constantly switching and aggressive defense very effective. This size is a large reason I see the Blue Devils in this tier, despite having weak conference play without many tests in the ACC.

These other contributors include freshman Kon Knueppel, a sharpshooter and gritty player who scores 13.5 points per game on 38.6% from three, shooting 6 per game, as well as guards Tyrese Proctor (11.5 ppg), Sion James (7.9 points, 3.2 assists), and freshman center Khaman Maluach, who scores 7.8 points, grabs 6 boards, and blocks 1.1 shots per game. While I don’t have nearly as much faith in this group as the two above, I cannot rule them out, and they just keep winning. Their three losses are to Kentucky, Kansas, and Clemson, three other tournament teams.

#4 Florida Gators

The Florida Gators are a funnn team. While the Alex Condon injury that occurred last night is very concerning to me, I still think they could go on a run without him. However, it sounds as though Condon should return at some point before the end of the year, and he avoided a serious injury. They just beat Auburn and Mississippi State back to back, two ranked teams, both on the road, and one of their stars, FAU transfer Alijah Martin, didn’t play in either game due to injury. To be honest, the more I look at this team, the more I like them, and almost want to move them above Duke or maybe into tier 1! But I won’t.

Their star power is provided by Walter Clayton Jr., a senior guard who averages 17.5 points per game along with 4 assists and 1.3 steals. He is a difference maker and always shows up when they need him. If he can’t get going, they still have multiple other strong scorers in Will Richard who scores 13.2 per game and Alijah Martin who scores 15.3 per game. They do lack some interior presence, especially with Condon’s injury, but their guard talent makes up for it and doesn’t cause a problem.

TIER 3: I’M STILL GIVING THEM A CHANCE

#5- Texas Tech Red Raiders

The Red Raiders are good. They’ve surprised me this year, and have only lost 5 games all year. They are a well balanced team that is fairly top heavy, but the coaching of Grant McCasland is what sells me on this team possibly taking home the championship this year. They have two “bad losses” to St Joseph’s early in the year by 1, as well as UCF by 4, but those weren’t concerning, and their rotation and style has developed as their new additions get settled into the system.

They’re led by New Mexico transfer JT Toppin, who scores 15.2 points and grabs 8.6 rebounds per game. He was very good last year, but his step up while moving up to a much more difficult conference has been really impressive. I’m excited to see where his career could go. Along with him they have a great playmaker in Elijah Hawkins, a Minnesota transfer. Hawkins scores 9.6 points a game while dishing out 6.3 assists. His ability to game manage has been huge and will be huge in March. Along with him they have a great scorer in Chance McMillian, who shoots 5.5 threes a game and makes 44% of them, scoring 15.2 points. Last but certainly not least is their wing playmaker and top returner, Darrion Williams. Williams averages 14.8 points, 5.4 rebounds, 4 assists, and 1.3 steals a game, making an impact in every aspect of the game. Texas Tech is LEGIT. If they can beat Houston again on February 24th, they will be moving up for sure!

#6- Iowa State Cyclones

The only reason the Cyclones are this low is due to the 3 game drought they had, losing to Arizona in overtime, and then both Kansas State and Kansas by double digits. They’ve bounced back, but it is still concerning to see it. Still, this team is veryy good and TJ Otzelberger knows what he’s doing.

They are led by the guard trio of Curtis Jones, Keshon Gilbert, and Tamin Lipsey. Jones is their leading scorer with 17.4 points, 4.6 boards, 2.3 assists, and 1.3 steals. Gilbert adds 14.7 points, 3.7 boards, and 4.5 assists, along with 1.4 steals. The true leader, however, is Tamin Lipsey, who scores 10.4 points, 2.5 boards, 2.9 assists, and 2.0 steals. He has exemplified the culture of Iowa State ever since he arrived on campus. Forward transfers Joshua Jefferson and Dishon Jackson have been massive additions for the Cyclones, scoring 12.8 and 9.0 points per game and being the backbone of their elite defense.

Teams that missed the cut and 1 reason why.

Alabama Crimson Tide

The system just doesn’t work well enough in March. They’re too susceptible to a bad shooting night, and to be honest, I just don’t trust them. They’re as close as possible though.

Tennessee Volunteers

Don’t pass the eye test for me at all. There are some nights where they just look terrible. A team with a very strong interior player could also hurt them a lot. (Too much reliance on shooting once again as well)

Purdue Boilermakers

Can’t believe I have to include this. This team doesn’t impress me at all. They just aren’t good enough, plain and simple. Braden Smith is good, but if you can stop him and Kaufman-Renn even marginally, the team has no other options that I would have any interest in relying on.

St John’s Boilermakers

I really considered this one. I like them and Pitino a lot, but their shooting is too inconsistent/bad for me to have faith in them winning it all. Love the team though, they could definitely go on a run.

Reply with any other team and I’ll let you know my thoughts!

(P.C. CNN)